Australia could see its GDP rise by $370 billion by 2035 if the country adopts a 75% emissions reduction target, according to new scenario analysis from Deloitte Access Economics. The analysis also suggests that an additional 69,000 jobs would be supported each year between 2025 and 2035 under this more ambitious target.
The Australian government is expected to decide soon on its 2035 emissions reduction goal. The Climate Change Authority has recommended a target between a 65% and 75% reduction from 2005 levels.
The Deloitte Access Economics report indicates that choosing the higher end of the range brings significant economic benefits. Compared to a weaker target of 65%, setting a goal of reducing emissions by 75% would bring forward investment, unlocking an extra $20 billion per year through to 2035. It would also boost export revenues by $190 billion up to 2050 as Australia’s exports become more competitive in a global market focused on decarbonisation.
Deloitte Access Economics Lead Partner Pradeep Philip said: “Australia is in a race to secure the global capital required to establish green industries. Setting a lower target today comes at the cost of lower business investment than would otherwise be the case.”
He added: “Achieving a strong target creates the foundation for Australia’s economy to grow and compete in a decarbonised world, driving investment, innovation and industries for growth. Getting these foundations right with a 75% target can drive, in today’s dollars, $190 billion more exports by mid-century.”
Support for the stronger climate target is growing among Australian businesses. More than 350 companies—including Fortescue, Future Group, Atlassian, Canva, IKEA, Unilever, Volvo Group Australia, Culture Amp, Bank Australia, Intrepid Travel and Ben & Jerry’s—have signed an open letter urging the government to commit to at least a 75% emissions reduction goal. The coalition backing this effort is led by Fortescue and Future Group.
Future Group Chief Executive Simon Sheikh said: “As the world decarbonises, Australia holds a winning hand: abundant land, affordable renewable energy, critical minerals, and a skilled workforce. With these strengths, we can build a future made in Australia—powered by clean energy, advanced manufacturing, and secure, well-paid jobs in our regions. But ambition must come first.”
Sheikh continued: “A strong 2035 target will send a clear signal to investors, industry and our global partners that Australia is serious about net zero—and ready to play ball in the industries of tomorrow.”
Fortescue Metals and Operations Chief Executive Dino Otranto commented: “Results from modelling commissioned by Fortescue and Future Group show clearly that a 75 per cent 2035 target will drive the investment, innovation and infrastructure transformation that will position Australia as a global export powerhouse.
“The modelling shows that achieving a 75 per cent target could unlock an additional $370 billion in GDP by 2035 – a per capita GDP increase of over $10,000 – compared to a business as usual approach. A science-based target will deliver a larger, more productive and more prosperous economy in the 2030s and beyond compared to a lower target.”
Otranto concluded: “The Australian business community is ready to back a strong emissions target of 75 per cent. The government should seize this once-in-a-generation opportunity for the good of our economy, for our businesses and for every Australian citizen.”
